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class="age"
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title="2026-03-29T20:42:58 1774816978"
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<div class="comment">
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<div class="commtext c00">
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Thanks, this helped crystallize something for
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me: the play the AI labs are making is
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anti-fragile (in the Nassim Taleb sense):
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<p>
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> The very act of resisting feeds what
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you resist and makes it less fragile to
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future resistance.
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</p>
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<p>
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At least along certain dimensions. I don't
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think the labs themselves are antifragile.
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Obviously we all know the labs are training
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on everything (so write/act the way you want
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future AIs to perceive you), but I hadn't
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really focused on how they're absorbing the
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innovation that they stimulate. There's
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probably a biological analog...
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</p>
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<p>
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Well there are many, and I quote this AI
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response here for its chilling parallels:
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</p>
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<p>
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> Parasitic castrators and host
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manipulators do something related. Some
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parasites redirect a host’s resources away
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from reproduction and into body maintenance
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or altered tissue states that benefit the
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parasite. A classic example is parasites
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that make hosts effectively become
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growth/support machines for the parasite. It
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is not always “stimulate more tissue, then
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eat it,” but it is
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<i
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>“stimulate more usable host productivity,
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then exploit it.”</i
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>
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(ChatGPT 5.4 Thinking. Emphasis mine.)
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>gobdovan</a
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<span
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class="age"
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title="2026-03-29T21:04:12 1774818252"
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><a href="item?id=47567293"
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>6 hours ago</a
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<div class="comment">
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<div class="commtext c00">
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Instead of anti-fragility, I'd point you to
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the law of requisite variety instead. You'll
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notice that all AI improvements are insanely
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good for a week or two after launch. Then
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you'll see people stating that 'models got
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worse'. What happened in fact is that people
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adapted to the tool, but the tool didn't adapt
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anymore. We're using AI as variety resistant
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and adaptable tools, but we miss the fact that
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most deployments nowadays do not adapt back to
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you as fast.
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<span class="comhead"
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><a href="user?id=chongli" class="hnuser"
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>chongli</a
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>
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<span
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class="age"
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title="2026-03-29T21:26:31 1774819591"
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><a href="item?id=47567509"
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>6 hours ago</a
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>root</a
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>
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<br />
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<div class="comment">
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<div class="commtext c00">
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New models literally do get worse after
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launch, due to optimization. If you charted
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performance over time, it'd look like a
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sawtooth, with a regular performance drop
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during each optimization period.
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<p>
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That's the dirty secret with all of this
|
||
stuff: "state of the art" models are
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unprofitable due to high cost of inference
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before optimization. After optimization they
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still perform okay, but way below SOTA. It's
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like a knife that's been sharpened until
|
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razor sharp, then dulled shortly after.
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</p>
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